Opinion: Gulf Crisis – the Strategic Importance of Biogas in Putting Affordable Food on the Table

Opinion: Gulf Crisis – Biogas as a Strategic Solution for Food Affordability During the Gulf Crisis

By Jon Hughes, Editor in Chief, ADBA

As farmers brace for higher fuel and fertiliser prices arising out of the Iran war, the issues of energy and food security top the agenda of most nations. Disruptions to the supply of oil and gas act as an economy-wide inflationary shock. With the Straits of Hormuz essentially a no-go area for shipping and attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure stalling production, prices for both oil and gas are volatile.  

Whether this becomes baked in depends on how long the war lasts. Most analysts believe it will end comparatively quickly, citing TACO – Trump always chickens out – wagering the President will be acutely sensitive to emerging inflationary pressures in America. 

We can only hope that is the case. But we must heed the warning. We need to become more self-sufficient – especially in food production. We currently import ~40% of our calories.  

Fertiliser is a Security Issue 

Over the past few years, Western governments and intelligence agencies – including the UK – have started to treat food systems, fertiliser supply and energy inputs as national security issues, not just agricultural or economic ones. 

In January, the UK government released a report titled “Global Biodiversity Loss, Ecosystem Collapse and National Security.” It was produced with input from the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) – the body that coordinates intelligence from agencies such as MI5, MI6, and GCHQ. 

This said the UK is vulnerable to global supply disruptions. Because the chain is so short, fertiliser has effectively become a national security input:

Natural gas → ammonia → fertiliser → crop yields → food prices → political stability.

The goal is to avoid a situation where energy shocks cascade into food crises. 

In this scenario biogas becomes a strategic imperative because it addresses multiple vulnerabilities in one go: energy security, fertiliser supply and agricultural resilience. This reflects ADBA’s long-standing position and it is imperative the government commits to the rapid development of industry to insulate the economy from such external shocks – whether geo-political or climate related. 

The Cost of Inaction 

Natural gas prices have the strongest and most immediate impact on food inflation, driving up the cost of fertiliser inputs (especially nitrogen fertilisers), while oil prices mainly influence broader agricultural costs in the form of transport inputs and off-grid energy prices. 

The benchmark UK gas price rose above 165p a therm on Tuesday (3 March), which it last traded at a year after the start of the Ukraine war. It closed at 138p a therm – still over a fifth higher than Monday’s price (2 March). Oil prices shot above $100 on Monday (9 March), at one point hitting $120.  

Prices for ammonium nitrate, the main fertiliser used by British farmers hit £870 per tonne in September 2022 after the gas crisis caused by the Ukraine war, compared to an average price per tonne of £217 in 2020. This fed in to rampant food inflation and shrinkflation. We are currently teetering on the brink of a second wave.  

Incidentally, the rising oil price benefits the Russia war machine which could further constrain access to commodities, particularly wheat and fertiliser. 

Don’t Panic, Futureproof your Farm 

Finally, the message to farmers is ‘don’t panic’. The UK has stocks of fertiliser, lots of it already on farm. However, if the conflict is prolonged then price rises and shortages will be baked into the system. The BBC’s Farming Today (7 March) reported some farmers as saying orders for fuel were being agreed uncosted, already reflecting uncertainty over price.  

Nevertheless, it is a time for farmers to consider future-proofing their businesses and biogas represents a compelling opportunity. The issue of food and farming resilience will be a focus of this year’s World Biogas Expo – as this is an issue that is impacting all countries.  

A large share of global fertiliser exports comes from four countries: Russia – major nitrogen and phosphate exporter; Belarus – major potash exporter; Morocco – dominant phosphate reserves; and Canada – leading potash producer. 

With such perilous supply lines, all countries need to focus domestic biogas at scale to be less dependent on fertiliser and energy imports, as both food and energy prices are historically linked to instability. 

Join us to at the World Biogas Expo on 8-9th July 2026 and register your interest to find out how biogas can insulate your farming business against rising fuel and fertiliser costs, while accessing carbon markets and meeting bio-diversity regulations.